The battle for the top spot will be the key focus of this week’s WGC-HSBC Champions event, as newly-crowned number one Lee Westwood returns from injury and will be looking to fend off the challenges of the man he deposed, Tiger Woods along with Phil Mickelson and Martin Kaymer.
The event is the final WGC event of the season, and will be played as always at the Sheshan course, Shanghai. Although not overly long at a shade over 7,200 yards, its par-72 rewards big hitters; while its fast, bent-grass greens demand someone with a good putting touch.PGA Tour regulars have tended to outperform their European Tour counterparts in WGC events, with all WGC tournaments since 2008 having been won by competitors who ply their trade on the PGA Tour. So its logical to focus our search for the likely winner there.
With the focus on the media likely to fall on the battle for number one, it might also be wise to overlook the obvious choices of Westwood, Woods, Mickelson and Kaymer given the amount of attention their participation is likely to receive, as well as niggling doubts about all four’s readiness for the event.
So lets begin with the chances of Nick Watney. Perhaps most famous in 2010 for letting slip a three-shot lead at Whistling Straits in the final round of the US PGA – won by Martin Kaymer, of course – Watney has nonetheless the pedigree to do well here. He opened with a round of 64 last year, and shared the half-way lead. He also remained in contention throughout to eventually finish fifth, so he clearly knows how to play the course. Add in some good recent form figures – he’s finished no worse than 36th place in his last nine starts, two of which have seen top-6 finishes. Odds of 28/1 are appealing as a solid each-way bet for the California player.
Ryder Cup player Luke Donald also enters calculations, although as always I have doubts about his winning profile, given his wins-to-starts ratio. Donald has played consistently well in 2010, and in his current form can be given every chance here. He finished in a tie for third last week in Malaysia, but could well have won but for a crucial triple-bogey just as he was beginning to get up a head of steam. At 22/1 he is a sound insurance policy to make the placings.
A perhaps surprise mention goes to the ever-colourful Ian Poulter, who can be backed at 50/1. Poulter hasn’t played much golf in 2010, and the Ryder Cup aside, his last competitive start was in the US PGA where he retired in the final round. Prior to that his form was average at best, but Poults can often spring up when you least expect it, and this could be one of those times, especially after his stirring Ryder Cup performance at The Celtic Manor Resort. At the price on offer, I can’t ignore him this week.
Ernie Els finished runner-up last year, and there’s no doubting that the Big Easy has been revisiting past glories this year, with two victories on the PGA Tour, as well as in the Grand Slam of Golf. Els has bags of experience playing in this part of the world and last week in Malaysia fired four sub-70 rounds on his way to tying for fifth place in the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic. Will be a danger to all at 22/1.
Padraig Harrington has yet to finish worse than 25th in five outings in Shanghai, and the largely out-of-sorts Irishman regained the winning thread with a convincing win in Malaysia a few weeks ago. However, Harrington can point to numerous top-10 finishes on both the PGA and European Tour this season, so his game hasn’t been as bad as people have made out, and now after that confidence boosting win and a rest inbetween, he could challenge again at 33/1.
Paul Casey at 20/1 also rates a big danger. The world number seven would surely have been higher placed in the rankings had it not been for injury, and he was controversially overlooked for this year’s Ryder Cup match. However, Casey’s record around Sheshan is impressive, with four consecutive top-four finishes, before having to withdraw last year in the final round due to that troublesome rib. Although winless in 2010, Casey has shown consistent form and his last two starts read a second and fourth-placed finish.
At an ever bigger price, I suspect Bill Haas could go well at 80/1. The big-hitting Haas has shown some clinical finishing when in contention, and his last two starts on the full PGA Tour have yielded a win and a second. He didn’t really fire last week in Malaysia, and seemingly took time to acclimatise to the humid conditions, but the stronger company of this event could see Haas raise his game now he knows what to expect from the conditions, and he did finish sixth at Doral in March so he knows he can mix it with the big boys.
Selection: Nick Watney
Savers: Luke Donald, Ian Poulter
